Reasonable Rascal
02-26-03, 21:22
CJD (NEW VAR.), REVISED MORTALITY PREDICTION - UK
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A ProMED-mail post
Date: Wed 26 Feb 2003
From: ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org> & Pablo Nart <p.nart@virgin.net>
Source: BBC News Online, Wed 26 Feb 2003 [edited]
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2797779.stm>
Revised Prediction of the Extent of the variant CJD Epidemic in the UK
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Researchers estimating how extensive the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease [abbreviated as CJD (new var.) or vCJD in ProMED-mail] epidemic might be in Great Britain predict there will be 7000 future cases -- far fewer than the half a million estimated in 1998.
Dr Azra Ghani, from Imperial College, London, who led the research, said the age distribution of cases so far suggested certain young people were "more susceptible to infection and/or were exposed to a greater extent." She added: "Those aged between 10 and 20 years of age are most susceptible or exposed to infection, with those over 40 years being much less susceptible or exposed." Her findings suggest the young people will always have the greatest risk of developing vCJD, even though measures have been introduced to reduce the chance of contracting the disease through infected meat. (The research findings will be published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society).
Dr Ghani said uncertainty over the extent of the epidemic had decreased since the disease was first identified 6 years ago, though it was still not possible to make an accurate prediction. She added: "However, short-term projections show that it is unlikely that a dramatic increase in case numbers will be observed in the next 2 to 5 years." Ongoing studies testing tonsil and appendix tissue for the presence of vCJD prions will provide information about the prevalence of infection, Dr Ghani said. But she added: "Their interpretation will be limited by our relatively poor understanding of the sensitivity and specificity of the tests throughout disease incubation. The main priority therefore remains the development of a diagnostic test that is able to detect infection early in the incubation period and that can be applied to large population samples, both in the UK and elsewhere."
************************************************
A ProMED-mail post
Date: Wed 26 Feb 2003
From: ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org> & Pablo Nart <p.nart@virgin.net>
Source: BBC News Online, Wed 26 Feb 2003 [edited]
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2797779.stm>
Revised Prediction of the Extent of the variant CJD Epidemic in the UK
------------------------------------------------
Researchers estimating how extensive the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease [abbreviated as CJD (new var.) or vCJD in ProMED-mail] epidemic might be in Great Britain predict there will be 7000 future cases -- far fewer than the half a million estimated in 1998.
Dr Azra Ghani, from Imperial College, London, who led the research, said the age distribution of cases so far suggested certain young people were "more susceptible to infection and/or were exposed to a greater extent." She added: "Those aged between 10 and 20 years of age are most susceptible or exposed to infection, with those over 40 years being much less susceptible or exposed." Her findings suggest the young people will always have the greatest risk of developing vCJD, even though measures have been introduced to reduce the chance of contracting the disease through infected meat. (The research findings will be published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society).
Dr Ghani said uncertainty over the extent of the epidemic had decreased since the disease was first identified 6 years ago, though it was still not possible to make an accurate prediction. She added: "However, short-term projections show that it is unlikely that a dramatic increase in case numbers will be observed in the next 2 to 5 years." Ongoing studies testing tonsil and appendix tissue for the presence of vCJD prions will provide information about the prevalence of infection, Dr Ghani said. But she added: "Their interpretation will be limited by our relatively poor understanding of the sensitivity and specificity of the tests throughout disease incubation. The main priority therefore remains the development of a diagnostic test that is able to detect infection early in the incubation period and that can be applied to large population samples, both in the UK and elsewhere."