Reasonable Rascal
06-10-01, 16:04
Gleaned from a newsgroup some time back and submitted for your edification.
RR
---------------------------------------------
Dear (deleted):
My colleague in Oregon has asked if I wouldn't mind sharing a few thoughts with you on the subject of preparedness for biological events. I'm sure you won't mind if I omit your name from this reply and forward it to the public lists as it seems likely that others may also share your concern.
To begin with, it should be understood that we are talking about military events and not natural phenomena. Anthrax and humanity have
managed to exist side-by-side for millennia without exterminating one or the other. Yes, some people do sicken and perhaps die every year from anthrax. Into each life, however, a little rain must fall and there is no way short of an apartment in outer space to avoid occassional contact between the human species and the anthrax virus.
Anthrax as a weapon was first developed by the British during World War II. Although highly tempted by this weapon's effectiveness and the execrable nature of its nazi opponent, the British elected to forego using anthrax for two reasons-- increasingly satisfactory progress in winning the war through conventional means and the possibility of retaliation. Germany is densely populated but Great Britain even more so. Another factor that weighed against its use was the persistent nature of anthrax "infection" of an area.
The remote Scottish isle which was used as a testing ground by the British remains uninhabitable to this day. Despite the menace of nazism, Great Britain magnanimously chose not to bequeath vast tracts of diseased
wasteland as a lasting legacy to generations of as-yet-unborn, and therefore innocent, Germans (and Britons).
The danger from a military perspective lies in the concentration of the spores in a general area. By this I mean that there is only a limited danger from one anthrax spore per acre. That one spore is only going to catch one victim and only under an extremely improbable combination of circumstances and plain old bad luck. Put 10,000,000 spores in that acre and you now have a much greater chance of stumbling across the one that has your name on it. These things don't have legs but once there in that acre they are going to be staying for a long, long time.
Fighting a victorious anthrax campaign here at home therefore breaks down into two major areas of preparedness: early detection and prompt evacuation.
Although I have no understanding of the prevailing winds in your area of the nation, there is bound to be a seasonal pattern. Let us say, for example, that the autumn winds blow generally from the north and west, as they do here in Colorado. A "downwind" anthrax attack to the south and east of you would therefore pose little direct risk. An "upwind" attack, perhaps on a major city directly to the north of you, would require increased scrutiny of that day's particular weather patterns, a determination of the risk of staying put or an acceptance of the need for escape and an assessment of where would be the likeliest place to safely evacuate to.
You have generously offered a safe refuge to many of your friends and family but unfortunately, once contaminated on a military scale, your happy home will be of no further use to you ever again. No matter how well-sealed or properly-stocked your residence may be, the large concentrations of anthrax in a militarily-infected area will persist and will eventually claim even the best-prepared group. YOU MUST GET OUT OF THE INFECTED OR SOON-TO-BE-INFECTED AREA AT ONCE!!!!
This evacuation would ideally take place long before the anthrax spores, drifting lazily on the wind from their point of release a hundred or so miles away, reach your neighborhood. There is an old Chinese proverb that says: "A wise man is prepared to abandon his baggage once or twice in a lifetime." If you hear of an upwind attack, don't wait. Jump in the car, roll up the
windows, and don't stop for gas or to use the restroom. Drive on and devil take the hindmost.
Suppose, however, that you wake up in the morning and hear about an overnight incident in that city to the north of you. By now, perhaps, local areas are already beginning to experience deposition of biological agents. You still need to get out of town, but now you need to get out of town "slowly". Don't
panic. Close all the doors and windows and keep everyone inside. Hopefully you have a vehicle sitting in your attached garage.
Get everyone inside the car. Use a roll of duct tape to seal all of the door cracks and around the edges of all the windows except the driver's door window. Seal the heater's air intake vent (that grate just underneath the windshield wipers). Climb inside your open driver's side window and roll it up. Use more of your duct tape to seal this window from the inside. Hit your garage door opener, start the car, and head for the hills.
Be aware that a tightly-sealed vehicle can eventually generate large quantities of carbon monoxide so get out of the "downwind"
track of the anthrax as soon as possible. If you need to replenish the air supply in your passenger compartment before getting to safety, bring the vehicle to a complete stop, preferably under some sort of overhead shelter - underneath a bridge or a gas station canopy, and then open your driver's side window. A wet towel can perhaps be used an an improvised air filter. Once the air is
renewed, roll your window back up, retape the edges and drive on.
In the event of heightened international tensions, a specially-prepared "survival vehicle" could be readied for use. In additon to the above preparations, NBC-rated masks and disposable suits could be stored inside the vehicle along with some necessary survival supplies, changes of clothes and
shoes, first-aid supplies, a firearm or two, important family legal documents, valuables and heirlooms and perhaps some spare gas cans. Double-wrapping all items in sealed garbage bags wouldn't hurt. If the best you can do for overgarments is dust masks and disposable paper suits from a paint store, then use these. A box of garbage bags and some rolls of duct tape are excellent materials for the improvisation of emergency escape suits if you have nothing else.
A military-style overpressure generation system for the passenger compartment can be improvised through a bottle of compressed air or oxygen. This system, wherein the valve of the bottle is cracked just slightly open, raises the atmospheric pressure inside the compartment to a level slightly higher than
that outside the compartment. Any "bugs" or viruses that waft their way towards your vehicle are going to have to swim "upstream" to get through that river of air rushing out of all the miniscule crevices-- a rather unlikely proposition. Be aware of the increased fire and explosion hazard if you use pure oxygen for your overpressure system. Compressed air would be best. Use oxygen only as an emergency alternative. Don't raise the pressure so high as to cause damage to your health, particularly eardrums, or so that you run out of overpressure perhaps when you need it the most. Just enough and no more. Gauges from an oxy-acetylene welding kit could be used to measure the available supply of overpressure and regulate its expenditure.
As I am writing "off the cuff", I have no idea of the best possible psi setting for this sort of usage but it shouldn't be too hard to discover through asking questions of a local science teacher or by simple experimentation. The important thing is to have the hardware available. Knowledge of the proper settings on the gauge but no bottle of compressed air will be of much less use than a bottle of compressed air and no idea of the proper psi setting. Use your head and be careful when experimenting.
Work your way up gradually. Don't blow the windows out of your station wagon. This means that you have TOO MUCH overpressure.
Once a safe area is reached, possibly at an established "decontamination site" on the perimeter of the exposed area, you should expect to abandon your "contaminated" vehicle. Being able to prove that your personal goods were stowed ahead of time and double-sealed might enable you to keep them from being confiscated. Another solution might be to "drop them off" somewhere close to the reception area prior to reporting in and quietly retrieving them later. Government civil defense manuals generally recommend the disarming of refugees in fallout shelters and I would imagine that a similar policy would be in effect at these reception sites. Keep this in mind and make your own plans accordingly.
All of the above is written not as an exhaustive remedy for biological contamination but merely as my own thoughts that have occurred to me during composition of this letter. I am sure that I have omitted much and perhaps given some inaccurate advice here and there. As is the case with practically everyone else, I am no expert on the subject of biological weapons and fervently hope that I never have the opportunity to become one. Others with more knowledge may perhaps be kind enough to forward corrections, improvements, or denials and thus we may all end up with an increased
understanding of the most useful preparations to take in the event of an actual emergency, however unlikely its occurrence may be.
To sum up, I would urge you not to "make a stand" against biological weapons. Long distance is much, much better than being there. If your home is in the path of a biological delivery system, it is going to be permanently, irretrievably lost to you and you must not allow sentimental attachment to stand in the way of the safety of yourself, your family or your friends.
Although this may not be the advice you were expecting to receive, I hope that it is nevertheless of value to you.
RR
---------------------------------------------
Dear (deleted):
My colleague in Oregon has asked if I wouldn't mind sharing a few thoughts with you on the subject of preparedness for biological events. I'm sure you won't mind if I omit your name from this reply and forward it to the public lists as it seems likely that others may also share your concern.
To begin with, it should be understood that we are talking about military events and not natural phenomena. Anthrax and humanity have
managed to exist side-by-side for millennia without exterminating one or the other. Yes, some people do sicken and perhaps die every year from anthrax. Into each life, however, a little rain must fall and there is no way short of an apartment in outer space to avoid occassional contact between the human species and the anthrax virus.
Anthrax as a weapon was first developed by the British during World War II. Although highly tempted by this weapon's effectiveness and the execrable nature of its nazi opponent, the British elected to forego using anthrax for two reasons-- increasingly satisfactory progress in winning the war through conventional means and the possibility of retaliation. Germany is densely populated but Great Britain even more so. Another factor that weighed against its use was the persistent nature of anthrax "infection" of an area.
The remote Scottish isle which was used as a testing ground by the British remains uninhabitable to this day. Despite the menace of nazism, Great Britain magnanimously chose not to bequeath vast tracts of diseased
wasteland as a lasting legacy to generations of as-yet-unborn, and therefore innocent, Germans (and Britons).
The danger from a military perspective lies in the concentration of the spores in a general area. By this I mean that there is only a limited danger from one anthrax spore per acre. That one spore is only going to catch one victim and only under an extremely improbable combination of circumstances and plain old bad luck. Put 10,000,000 spores in that acre and you now have a much greater chance of stumbling across the one that has your name on it. These things don't have legs but once there in that acre they are going to be staying for a long, long time.
Fighting a victorious anthrax campaign here at home therefore breaks down into two major areas of preparedness: early detection and prompt evacuation.
Although I have no understanding of the prevailing winds in your area of the nation, there is bound to be a seasonal pattern. Let us say, for example, that the autumn winds blow generally from the north and west, as they do here in Colorado. A "downwind" anthrax attack to the south and east of you would therefore pose little direct risk. An "upwind" attack, perhaps on a major city directly to the north of you, would require increased scrutiny of that day's particular weather patterns, a determination of the risk of staying put or an acceptance of the need for escape and an assessment of where would be the likeliest place to safely evacuate to.
You have generously offered a safe refuge to many of your friends and family but unfortunately, once contaminated on a military scale, your happy home will be of no further use to you ever again. No matter how well-sealed or properly-stocked your residence may be, the large concentrations of anthrax in a militarily-infected area will persist and will eventually claim even the best-prepared group. YOU MUST GET OUT OF THE INFECTED OR SOON-TO-BE-INFECTED AREA AT ONCE!!!!
This evacuation would ideally take place long before the anthrax spores, drifting lazily on the wind from their point of release a hundred or so miles away, reach your neighborhood. There is an old Chinese proverb that says: "A wise man is prepared to abandon his baggage once or twice in a lifetime." If you hear of an upwind attack, don't wait. Jump in the car, roll up the
windows, and don't stop for gas or to use the restroom. Drive on and devil take the hindmost.
Suppose, however, that you wake up in the morning and hear about an overnight incident in that city to the north of you. By now, perhaps, local areas are already beginning to experience deposition of biological agents. You still need to get out of town, but now you need to get out of town "slowly". Don't
panic. Close all the doors and windows and keep everyone inside. Hopefully you have a vehicle sitting in your attached garage.
Get everyone inside the car. Use a roll of duct tape to seal all of the door cracks and around the edges of all the windows except the driver's door window. Seal the heater's air intake vent (that grate just underneath the windshield wipers). Climb inside your open driver's side window and roll it up. Use more of your duct tape to seal this window from the inside. Hit your garage door opener, start the car, and head for the hills.
Be aware that a tightly-sealed vehicle can eventually generate large quantities of carbon monoxide so get out of the "downwind"
track of the anthrax as soon as possible. If you need to replenish the air supply in your passenger compartment before getting to safety, bring the vehicle to a complete stop, preferably under some sort of overhead shelter - underneath a bridge or a gas station canopy, and then open your driver's side window. A wet towel can perhaps be used an an improvised air filter. Once the air is
renewed, roll your window back up, retape the edges and drive on.
In the event of heightened international tensions, a specially-prepared "survival vehicle" could be readied for use. In additon to the above preparations, NBC-rated masks and disposable suits could be stored inside the vehicle along with some necessary survival supplies, changes of clothes and
shoes, first-aid supplies, a firearm or two, important family legal documents, valuables and heirlooms and perhaps some spare gas cans. Double-wrapping all items in sealed garbage bags wouldn't hurt. If the best you can do for overgarments is dust masks and disposable paper suits from a paint store, then use these. A box of garbage bags and some rolls of duct tape are excellent materials for the improvisation of emergency escape suits if you have nothing else.
A military-style overpressure generation system for the passenger compartment can be improvised through a bottle of compressed air or oxygen. This system, wherein the valve of the bottle is cracked just slightly open, raises the atmospheric pressure inside the compartment to a level slightly higher than
that outside the compartment. Any "bugs" or viruses that waft their way towards your vehicle are going to have to swim "upstream" to get through that river of air rushing out of all the miniscule crevices-- a rather unlikely proposition. Be aware of the increased fire and explosion hazard if you use pure oxygen for your overpressure system. Compressed air would be best. Use oxygen only as an emergency alternative. Don't raise the pressure so high as to cause damage to your health, particularly eardrums, or so that you run out of overpressure perhaps when you need it the most. Just enough and no more. Gauges from an oxy-acetylene welding kit could be used to measure the available supply of overpressure and regulate its expenditure.
As I am writing "off the cuff", I have no idea of the best possible psi setting for this sort of usage but it shouldn't be too hard to discover through asking questions of a local science teacher or by simple experimentation. The important thing is to have the hardware available. Knowledge of the proper settings on the gauge but no bottle of compressed air will be of much less use than a bottle of compressed air and no idea of the proper psi setting. Use your head and be careful when experimenting.
Work your way up gradually. Don't blow the windows out of your station wagon. This means that you have TOO MUCH overpressure.
Once a safe area is reached, possibly at an established "decontamination site" on the perimeter of the exposed area, you should expect to abandon your "contaminated" vehicle. Being able to prove that your personal goods were stowed ahead of time and double-sealed might enable you to keep them from being confiscated. Another solution might be to "drop them off" somewhere close to the reception area prior to reporting in and quietly retrieving them later. Government civil defense manuals generally recommend the disarming of refugees in fallout shelters and I would imagine that a similar policy would be in effect at these reception sites. Keep this in mind and make your own plans accordingly.
All of the above is written not as an exhaustive remedy for biological contamination but merely as my own thoughts that have occurred to me during composition of this letter. I am sure that I have omitted much and perhaps given some inaccurate advice here and there. As is the case with practically everyone else, I am no expert on the subject of biological weapons and fervently hope that I never have the opportunity to become one. Others with more knowledge may perhaps be kind enough to forward corrections, improvements, or denials and thus we may all end up with an increased
understanding of the most useful preparations to take in the event of an actual emergency, however unlikely its occurrence may be.
To sum up, I would urge you not to "make a stand" against biological weapons. Long distance is much, much better than being there. If your home is in the path of a biological delivery system, it is going to be permanently, irretrievably lost to you and you must not allow sentimental attachment to stand in the way of the safety of yourself, your family or your friends.
Although this may not be the advice you were expecting to receive, I hope that it is nevertheless of value to you.