Could it be possible that the media is actually DOWNPLAYING the severity of the H1N1

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http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/8gl3w/could_it_be_possible_that_the_media_is_actually/

I just received an email from a Doctor friend from Comal in my home state of Texas. A Doctor not known for overstatement. A few Highlights have me more concerned than before. Would love to know your thoughts:

After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community leaders and school officials in Comal County, Heather suggested I send an update to everyone, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and Health Department is so different from what you are hearing in the media. Some of you know some or maybe all of this, but I will just list what facts I know..

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There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not "possible" cases -- actual), than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case right now.
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During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a WHO, Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so far. We are in uncharted territory.
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There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not "possible" cases -- actual), than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case right now.
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I expect President Obama will declare an emergency sometime in the next 72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn't, I will be surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days.
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Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will have to be carefully managed, as it is not enough to treat the likely number of infections when this is full-blown. I don't think there is a big supply of Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I would take Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the affected tissue than Tamiflu.
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The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico, and there are folks on ventilators here in the US, right now. This has not been in the media, but a 23 month old near here is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life. In Mexico, these folks might have died already, but here in the US, folks are getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready access to ventilators.
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Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no "herd immunity," so the "attack rate" is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatc. That is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The "clinical attack rate" may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this.

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btw: anyone else noticed the absence of docs on this board since this happened?

-t

[Reasonable Rascal]

I am very leary of anonymous reports by anonymous senders that always proclaim that things are worse than we are being told.

That said.....

Our ER is part of a "beds" network (hospitals automatically update bed availaibiluty status so you know who has what specialized beds available should your own capacity for the catagory be exceeded). Yuma, AZ was reporting that they had to set up tents outside the ER to handle approx 350 people - mostly Mexicans - who had shown up demanding to be tested for swine flu. Assuming Yuma's ER has a bed/waiting area capacity of about 50-55 as does ours then I can see why the tents would have been necessary.

RR

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Do you remember this post from 5 days ago? - yes, from another board, but the poster was a regular with a good record. Well over 1,000 posts...

"As an emergency doctor working out of the Northeast, I can tell you that I have diagnosed some pretty sick patients with rapid influenza testing showing Influenza A within the past 3 weeks. My colleages have also commented about how peculiar this trend has been. I know it is still early and I am in no way an epidemiologist, but I fear this is already quite widespread in the States and the scope of it is just coming to light.
Perhaps that why the CDC is already making their disclaimer that its too late to contain..."

The first post in this thread may be exaggerating a bit, but I have no doubt that the situation is much worse than the media is letting on. There were also reports posted on a BBC web site from Mexican doctors saying the media was massively under reporting and I heard there were a bunch of callers into the Alex Jones show who were calling from Mexico that said the same. This isn't a single report - it's more like 8 reports that are all saying the same thing - it's worse than is being reported.

Again, it's interesting that all the regular docs here are MIA...

-t

[Reasonable Rascal]

The MIA problem with the docs, save for Craig, has been ongoing and of long duration. 52Bravo is the only other doc who visits even semi-regularly. FlightERDoc seems to have disappeared from the face of the earth and likewise Resqdoc so far as we are concerned here.

RR